Football Market Intelligence
Understand the price before you place the bet.
Books do not agree with each other. Clauseground prices every outcome at every venue it collects, strips the bookmaker margin out, and names the venue quoting the best number — beside a separate model view and the uncertainty behind both.
Measured over 27,323 completed matches: taking the best surveyed closing price instead of the market average removed 5.77 points of margin. That is an upper bound on what a real bettor captures, not a return we made: the survey includes books that limit winning accounts. Here is the measurement.
Free to start · no card required · outcomes never guaranteed
24-hour price movement
La Liga
Málaga
9.9510.71
+7.6% in 24h
Figures measured on Pinnacle, 24h apart, out of 35 books quoting this market. The line is a separate view: each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 34–35 books across the window, so it can move when the set of quoting books changes.
Live product data, not a promise. A price that moved is information about what the market now believes — it is not evidence that the new price is wrong. Check the venue and the timestamp before acting.
The problem
A prediction without a price is only half an answer.
Displayed odds are not pure probabilities. They include bookmaker margin, vary across venues, and move as new information reaches the market.
A model probability is not enough either. A useful decision puts the market view, the model view, the available price, and the uncertainty on the same page.
From displayed odds to a disciplined decision
01
Collect the market prices
Clauseground ingests fixtures and supported venue prices, retaining the source and timestamp for each usable snapshot.
02
Remove the bookmaker margin
A complete reference market is normalized so its probabilities sum to 100%, producing a cleaner no-vig market view.
03
Compare it with the model
An independent football model produces a separate view. Clauseground shows where the two agree, where they differ, and which inputs may be incomplete.
04
Decide whether to act or pass
The analyst explains the price, the difference, how far the price has moved and what could make the analysis unreliable. It never tells you how much to stake. The decision remains yours — and passing is always a valid outcome.
The market, the model, and the evidence — kept distinct.
01
See the no-vig market view
Displayed odds include a margin. Clauseground removes that margin from a complete reference market so you can see the probability the price is implying more clearly.
02
Compare market and model
The market probability and Clauseground model probability stay separate. A difference is something to investigate — not automatic proof of an opportunity.
03
Find the best collected price
The same outcome can be a poor decision at one price and worth considering at another. Compare the available prices Clauseground has collected, with venue and timestamp attached.
04
See the evidence and limits
Source labels, update times, model details, missing inputs, and sample sizes make it easier to judge what a number can — and cannot — support.
AI analyst
Ask about the number, not just the outcome.
The analyst retrieves Clauseground data and explains it. It does not create probabilities by intuition or turn uncertainty into certainty.
Try the analyst freeQuestions worth asking
- “What is the market pricing in this match?”
- “Why does the model disagree with the market?”
- “Which collected price is best, and when was it updated?”
- “What could make this analysis unreliable?”
- “Is the difference still meaningful after the line moved?”
- “How far has this price moved in the last 24 hours?”
Trust by design
Every conclusion should be inspectable.
Source and timestamp
Prices and probabilities carry their origin and latest available update time, so stale data is easier to spot.
Separate points of view
Market, model, and combined estimates are labeled separately. Disagreement is never presented as certainty.
Limits in the open
Missing inputs, small samples, and methodology limits belong beside the result, not hidden behind it.
Public performance
A record starts with rules, not a victory lap.
Every scored prediction was recorded before kickoff with its price, source and model version, under rules published before there was a record to report. The full sample — calibration, closing line value, exclusions and corrections — is on one page, for the whole eligible period rather than a selected part of it.
View Public PerformanceCurrent clean-forward record
105 forward picks scored, since Jul 23, 2026
Hit rate
37.1%
39–66 W–L
ROI / unit
−4.9%
flat 1u at best price · 95% −35.0% to 25.2% — spans zero, so not yet distinguishable from break-even
Historical World Cup development records are excluded from headline metrics. No performance advantage is claimed.
Pricing
Start free. Upgrade for depth, not for tokens.
Create a free account for the analyst and the market-opportunity view — no card required. Paid plans open the layers Free does not include:
- The full opportunities board — Free ranks the top 3 by value; Pro and above show every one.
- More price alerts — Free runs 1 active rule; paid plans go up to 50.
- Digest delivery and quiet hours — Batch your alerts and silence them overnight, from Pro up.
- Derived-data export — Take the probabilities we derive and your own alert history out as CSV, on Trader.
Analyst usage is included with every plan — 5 messages a day on Free, up to 120 on Trader.
Free plan
$0/mo
- Full match board across all leagues
- Model-versus-market comparisons
- Top 3 opportunities by value
- AI analyst access
The rest of the board is a paid unlock — Pro and above show every one.
Straight answers before you start.
Is Clauseground a tipster service?
No. Clauseground is a market-intelligence and decision-support service. It shows current prices, margin-removed market probabilities, a separate model view, and the uncertainty behind each comparison. It can surface a potential opportunity, but it does not present disagreement as proof that a bet will win.
Does Clauseground guarantee profit?
No. Football outcomes are uncertain, prices move, and models can be wrong. Clauseground cannot guarantee an outcome or a profit. Its purpose is to make the evidence and trade-offs clearer so that you can make your own decision — including deciding not to bet.
Where do the numbers come from?
Market numbers come from timestamped odds collected from supported venues. Clauseground removes the margin from a complete reference market, then shows that market view separately from its statistical model. The product labels the source and update time wherever the underlying data is available.
Does the AI generate the probabilities?
No. Probabilities are calculated by structured pricing and modelling tools. The AI analyst retrieves those outputs, compares them, and explains them in plain language. It is instructed not to invent prices, probabilities, results, or data sources.
What is fair probability?
Displayed odds include a bookmaker margin. Fair, or no-vig, probability is the market-implied probability after that margin is removed across every outcome in the same market. It is a cleaner view of what that market is pricing, not a promise about what will happen.
Why does the model sometimes disagree with the market?
The model and the market use different inputs and update in different ways. A difference can reveal something worth investigating, but it can also mean the model is missing information or the price has moved. Clauseground treats disagreement as a question, not automatic evidence of an edge.
See today’s football markets more clearly.
Start with the prices, inspect the evidence, and decide for yourself whether the right action is bet, watch, or pass.
Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.